b'Canberra observed Canberra observedand Afghanistan, with only 8.6% of the3. Change the priorities for who gets population fully vaccinated. Nowherevaccinated first so that the people near the 70-80% needed for herdwho deliver services, be they health, immunity. transport or even retail outlets are at The State governments are blaming thethe front of the queue.Federal Government for the shortages, but4. Get more vaccines ASAP.nobody anticipated the problems with5. Have a separate support budget for the AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots.any future lockdowns.According to the health.gov.au website,We are going to have to live with this the chance of clots occurring is estimatedthing for a long time!to be 4-6 people in every million after being vaccinated. An exceptionally lowOil price on upward trendchance, but it has not stopped over ten David Denham AMEuropean countries banning the vaccine,In a good sign for petroleum explorers, in Associate Editor for Governmentand most Australians are choosing Pfizer ifJune 2021 the monthly West Texas crude denham1@iinet.net.au it is available. price finally rose back to above US$70/Then there is quarantine. Remember thebl. Figure 1 shows the quarterly numbers No new normal with the DeltaRuby Princess, when all 2700 passengersfor the oil price and the production variant of COVID-19 runningwere allowed to disembark in Sydney inestimates for Australia.rampant March 2020 without proper screening.According to the Resources Back in November 2020 it looked likeMore than 100 of them felt unwell. Atand Energy Quarterly for June we would return to near normal in 2021.least 900 people later tested positive2021 (https://publications.Even the Prime Minister was optimisticallyand 28 died. An inquiry found seriousindustry.gov.au/publications/saying We can look forward to a mucherrors by New South Wales Health in itsresourcesandenergyquarterlyjune2021/better 2021. But then came the Deltahandling of suspected cases on board,index.html), Australian crude and variant of the COVID-19, the scare overbut quarantine is a Federal responsibilitycondensate output is forecast to decline the link between blood clots and the was poor delegation at fault? marginally to 330 000 barrels a day, as AstraZeneca vaccine, the failure of ourAnyway, most cases of COVID in Australiacondensate output was affected by quarantine system, the low uptake ofhave originated from people arrivingthe temporary shutting of the Prelude vaccines, the argy-bargy between thefrom overseas and everybody agrees thatFLNG project. Prelude was offline States, and between the Feds and thehotels are not suitable places to serve a 14between February 2020 and January States. The current system might haveday stay in isolation. If China could build2021, affecting Australian crude and coped with any one of these challengesa COVID hospital for 1000 patients in onecondensate production for most of on their ownbut not altogether. week, we should have been able to, at202021. Gorgon is also experiencing least, start on new quarantine facilitiesongoing technical issues, affecting The Australian Government isto supplement the Centre for NationalAustralias condensate production. These responsible for the supply of vaccinesResilience in Howard Springs, near Darwin. setbacks will result in an 11% decrease in and quarantine. When we thought theproduction from 2019/20.virus was under control there seemed toWhile the above issues are mainlyAccording to the June 21 report, export be no urgency to order the jab juice, butmanaged by the Federal Government,values are forecast to decline by 14%, now there is a huge shortage, and we arethe States and Territories have had toreflecting low oil prices at the beginning not doing well. deal with the lock downs, tracings, andof the period in 202021. However, We were more than four months behindhealth care. Overall, they have doneexports are forecast to rise to $10.9 US, UK, Japan and Canada in securinga good job, but it would have beenbillion in 202122, driven by higher supplies from Pfizer. They had all signedeven better if there had been moreprices, but will decline to $10.1 billion agreements before September 2020 andvaccine shots available, if the Federalin 202223 as both prices and output it was expected that 1.3 billion dosesGovernment had not tried to bully somedecline. It is not sure how this will work would be produced to satisfy globalof the states into shortening lockdowns,out because of the price volatility in demand. The Australian order was small,and if it had provided better financialpetroleum products.only enough to vaccinate one-fifth ofsupport to businesses and workers after Australias population. Fortunately weJob Keeper came to an end.are told that additional deliveries will beSo, what should the AustralianIncome from iron ore forecast to made in the next three months, but weGovernment be doing to improve thedeclinecould have done with them now. current situation? I have five suggestions: The Resources and Energy Quarterly 2021 According to the New York Times1. Build more special purpose quarantinealso forecasts a decline in income from Vaccine Tracker, and at the time offacilities. iron ore from $149 billion in 2020/21 to writing, Australia is positioned 77th in2. Continue to investigate the possibility$113 billion in 2022/23. The volume of the vaccination stakes, between Albaniaof making vaccines in Australia. exports is forecast to increase, but the 33 PREVIEW AUGUST 2021'